Rafael Nadal looked unbelievable in his 6-2, 6-2, 6-0 win today over Denis Istomin. Nadal was never in trouble and finished the match on his serve with crushing forehand winners. Rafa looks ready to win his seventh French Open title to pass Bjorn Borg. Besides Federer, Djokovic, and Murray can anyone derail Rafa? Even these three players would be underdogs.
I believe there are a few guys that could catch Rafa by surprise and give him real problems. Nadal's only loss at the French was to Robin Soderling who was hitting winners off both sides. Soderling put Rafa on the defensive with an aggressive, first-strike style from the baseline. Is there anyone in this draw that can give Nadal similar headaches in the 2012 French Open?
Under the right circumstances I feel there is a short list of players that could beat Rafa on the clay. Now, let's step back and think about this. I am writing about guys who "could maybe" defeat Nadal if everything goes right. That, in and of itself, is a compliment to the brilliance of Nadal on the red clay. Nonetheless, here are the guys that have the potential to trouble Rafa:
John Isner
Last year Isner had a 2 sets to 1 lead over Nadal. Rafa never seemed more frustrated at the French than in that match. Isner was the first player to take Nadal to five sets in his career at Roland Garros. Isner has the ability to give Rafa the same kind of problems with his big serve, forehand, and ability to move well for being a big guy. Experience would not be on Isner's side. Nadal and Isner would meet in the semifinals and you would have to think that the physicality of playing on red clay would put Isner at a disadvantage. Plus, Nadal is far less likely to be unprepared and not playing well at the end of the tournament. Isner would be better served to see Rafa earlier in the draw.
Milos Raonic
Like Isner, Raonic gives his opponent's nightmares because of his first strike, huge game. Raonic can serve anyone off the court. You are seeing a pattern here I'm sure. Big player, big weapons, that moves well. This is a good recipe for giving Rafa problems. He unable to dominate and control the points from behind the baseline. However, Raonic has been inconsistent and again experience would not be on his side. Raonic and Nadal would meet in the Round of 16 which is good for Milos in some respects; try to catch Nadal early in the tournament before he is totally dialed in. Based on today's performance by Nadal it may already be too late to hope for an unprepared Rafa.
Tomas Berdych
Of the four guys I am listing here Berdych has the most experience. However, this experience has not been all good in the Slams. Nonetheless, Berdych has the ability to smack winners from all areas of the court and has big shots. He also moves well. Berdych, like Soderling, could control the match with his forehand and being aggressive, although Berdych needs to exhibit the focus and intensity to overcome a player of Nadal's stature. From Berdych you do not always see the consistent urgency and discipline that Soderling displayed in beating Nadal. Berdych is on the other half of the draw and has a brutal list of potential opponents - Anderson, Del Potro, Federer, Djokovic. If Berdych was able to get to the Final it would be a miraculous effort.
Juan Martin Del Potro
Del Potro is in the same part of the draw as Berdych, so he has that same tough list of guys to battle through. With Del Po's questionable knee I thought of keeping him off this list of potential Nadal-beaters. However, Del Potro is the only man outside the Top 3 to win a slam in what seems to be a decade. He has the ability to beat anyone in the world but clay is not his best surface. Del Potro is the best of the four guys presented here. Big weapons and has the mettle to hit out under pressure. It is hard to foresee Del Potro making it through the draw with a hampered knee. If he did Nadal would punish what would probably be an ailing Del Potro.
That is my list of guys outside the Top 4 that could beat Nadal. I am not saying it will happen, but if one of this match-ups occurs watch closely. It will be dangerous for Nadal in his pursuit of French Open championship #7.
Four Players that Could Beat Nadal at the French
Three Slams and the Olympics Makes it A Grueling, Pressure-Packed Summer of Tennis
Did you realize that between May 27th, the start of the French Open, until September 9th, the final of the US Open, the men and women will play three Grand Slams and the Olympics?
The French Open which started Sunday begins the trek. Then, next comes Wimbledon followed by the Olympics at Wimbledon, and finally the US Open. Do you think Rafa will show up for Davis Cup vs. the United States the week after the US Open? Don't bet on it.
If you break it down that is 6 weeks of Grand Slam tennis and at least 1 week of Olympic Tennis. In the 15 weeks or 105 days during this time period. There is the potential for players to compete in a Slam or at the Olympics in 27 matches. That is more than 1 every four days! And, that does not account for the hot summer grass court tournaments in Europe, and the usually sweltering summer stops in the United States.
I would expect upsets, retirements and injuries, and no one to run the gamut. It is asking way too much for any player to win all of these matches. Let's just hope that players can avoid bad injuries. Agassi won 24 straight matches in the US summer tour only to lose the final match at the US Open to Pete Sampras. Agassi felt drained and talked about how he really was affected for some time by losing that match.
If you a tennis fan this is the best stretch of tennis ever! Fed at Wimbledon during the Olympics? Amazing. The pressure and the stories will be off the charts.
Focus at the Forefront for Del Potro, Azarenka, Simon, Baker
Focus is the key at the French. It was the difference between players struggling but surviving, and some players like David Nalbandian getting ousted in the first round.
The first two days of the French Open mostly played to form. Seeded players handled their unseeded opponents, routinely in many cases. However, what is the future for Juan Martin Del Potro and Victoria Azarenka at the French Open? Can they reel their games in as they go along at a Slam?
Del Potro struggled mightily to get past Albert Montanes in four grueling sets. Give Montanes his due; he is an excellent clay court player. But, what does this mean for Del Potro's form? What about his physical state? He looked like he was limping and not sure of himself. Fortunately for Del Po Montanes lost his focus and his game allowing the Argentine to roll in the fourth set. Credit to Del Potro for not panicking and keeping his focus when Montanes was rolling, but he will need more to move deep in this tournament.
Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka also struggled with Alberta Brianti, who is ranked outside the top 100 on the WTA tour. Azarenka was down a set and 4-0! How does that happen? Well when you hurt yourself with errors you can lose to anybody, trust me. First round matches are always tough for players as they get used to the court surface, but I think even more so for Vika. She is learning to live with the expectations of being a grand slam champion and the #1 ranked player in the world. Her focus must improve if she plans to continue her winning ways.
Gilles Simon and Ryan Harrison got after it in a very interesting first round match-up. Harrison was playing great early on. He was up a set and nearly had the second set, before getting broken. It seemed Harrison lost his focus and intensity a little, and frustration starting to creep in too much. Simon, on the other hand, was able to become even more focused and consistent forcing Harrison to hit for more and more. This game plan worked in the favor of the Frenchman who is an excellent competitor despite not having any huge strokes. Simon is living proof that your brain can win you matches.
Late in the evening Brian Baker, in his first French Open at age 27, also worked hard to keep his focus to finish off Xavier Malisse. Baker has been on a roll making the final of Nice and winning a wildcard from the French federation by winning a USTA playoff. Baker was in control for much of this match. He was the aggressor and really had Malisse behind most of the day. Malisse did battle in the second and third set, even when down a break. Baker mentioned he lost his focus for a couple of games in the third allowing Malisse to work his way back on serve. Baker would win convincingly in the third set tiebreak. He looked far more confident than the crafty veteran from Belgium. Winning matches does wonders for the confidence. Baker was composed in what could have been a very anxiety-provoking situation. What an opportunity and Baker did not let it slip away. He was aggressive and took the match from Malisse. Good for Baker. Even on clay the aggressor is going to win if he puts the ball away.
David Ferrer and Four Other Sentimental Favorites at French Open
Chances are that the winner of the men's draw at the 2012 French Open will come from one of three men: Nadal, Djokovic, or Federer. Del Potro is the only man to break the top three's stranglehold on the Slams in the last seven years. Nonetheless, I am going to list some of my sentimental favorites to win this French Open.
It is hard to say who is most deserving to win an Open who has not, but David Ferrer of Spain has to be close to the top of the list. The guy works incredibly hard for every point and has a stature that the weekend player can relate to. Ferrer, however, is unable to crack the top three (like everyone else). He is a bulldog and will be there in the second week. Maybe this is his year if Rafa slips up (again this post is about "what ifs" not reality).
Another sentimental favorite has to be Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Even though he did not give himself a chance to win it, if he somehow did win his home country Open it would be a spectacle. Tsonga has huge, exciting game that has not always translated to wins at the French. A remarkable win over Federer at Wimbledon should give Tsonga some belief when it comes to beating the Top 3 (although Federer did smash at the US Open).
What would this list be without Andy Murray? Murray has won more matches than anyone I can remember without winning a Slam. Could this be the time? Murray is with new coach Ivan Lendl and looked better in the Australian Open. I believe he will eventually win a Slam because he has beaten the Top 3 on many occasions, just not in a Slam final. It is hard to imagine Murray winning his first slam on clay, but Agassi won his first on grass. You never know.
Someone noted on Twitter that it is hard to believe Juan Carlos Ferrero has not advanced past the third round of the French Open since 2003. That is the year the JCF won the tournament and looked like he could be the next multiple French Open champion and successor to Gustavo Kuerten. It is has not worked out that way, and Ferrero has not even sniffed the final weekend in eight years since his win. How cool would it be if Ferrero went on a magical run at a second title?
The fifth sentimental favorite to win the French Open is David Nalbandian. Nalbandian is great to watch and has unbelievable strokes. In the last decade he is one of the best players to not win a Slam. Previously the nemesis of Roger Federer, injuries and time off have pushed Nalbandian out of the spotlight as a potential champion. No matter; of all the guys unranked lurking in the draw this is the guy you do not want to play. If he puts it together he can beat anyone.
Tsonga Believes A Frenchman Won't Win Roland Garros
Many people have noted that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga bears a resemblance to the great boxer Muhammad Ali. The quote I read from the Tennis.com website suggesting that Tsonga believes that a Frenchman cannot win the French Open is furthest thing from resembling the ultimate self-believer, Ali.
Tsonga's quote from Tennis.com (story is at http://tennis.com/articles/templates/news.aspx?articleid=17769&zoneid=25):
"Let's be clear, there is no chance that a French win Roland Garros," he told reporters in Rome. "There is no inevitability in my comments. It's just an observation. But not to be able win a Masters 1000 clay, then a Grand Slam seems impossible."
While there is always an issue in translation when a player speaks in a second language, it is clear that Tsonga has little belief that he or any of his compatriots can win their home Slam. How disappointing. A male French player has not won the championship since Yannick Noah in 1983. For the tennis enthusiasts in France I hope that other French players like Gael Monfils do not believe in Tsonga's prediction.
Even if you are thinking this - why say it? To take all expectations off yourself? Not sure that this is the way. Any glimpse of a lack of focus or effort and the French media will be on Tsonga's case. Tsonga has set a self-fulfilling prophecy - you don't think you are going to win? Guess what? You are not going to win.
The only hope for the French faithful is that Tsonga can find the belief as he goes through the tournament. If he can post a big win over a top 10 player that might be enough to enhance his belief in himself on clay. However, when you take this kind of mental approach into a big tournament you will struggle. Especially on the red clay of Roland Garros that requires more patience than the big swinging Tsonga is used to having to wield.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga lost to Stanislas Wawrinka of Switzerland in last year's French Open despite having a two set lead. Tsonga showed a lack of focus for large portions of those last three sets and did not step up when he had a chance to win the match. You can probably trace this back to Tsonga's lack of belief at the French Open. When you don't believe you get lost in a match. Your focus will come in and out. Heck, this happens when you do believe, but for sure your mental game is likely to hurt you when you don't believe. My advice - Tsonga needs to hit the reset button and begin to believe in his chances. Otherwise, France will almost assuredly go another year without a French champion.
Azarenka Dominance in 2012 Due to Adaptation of Mental Approach
Victoria Azarenka has been dominating the WTA tour for most of 2012. Her first loss came in Key Biscayne. That is in April! Azarenka did not credit a change in grip, stroke, or conditioning for her revelation. Instead it was all about perspective and mental approach.
In the June edition of Tennis magazine, Azarenka discusses the five things that have led to her success:
1. Practice with the intensity of the match
2. Stay calm - but not too calm
3. Find a teaching pro who lets you develop your way
4. Go back to basics when you're losing
5. Enjoy the game
A couple of points hit home with me. First, as a player you can take the biggest steps in your development by changing your mental approach and the way you look at things. Of course I am a believer in this and talk to players about this everyday, but it is nice to have a clear example of how adapting the mental game can make all the difference.
The second point that caught my attention was Azarenka saying confidence is overrated. I agree and also disagree. I agree with the fact that your confidence will come and go and you just have to battle through it. Furthermore, I agree that a player's self-belief should be based on the work they have done in practice - something that they control. By bolstering your confidence on the foundation of your hard work you can believe and trust your stuff even when things are not going well. What I disagree with is the idea that confidence is overrated. It is exactly that trust or a version of confidence in your preparation that Azarenka is relying on and not false confidence. Trusting your stuff, as I blogged about in the past, is a form of confidence that you want to take into a match with you.
Staying calm but not too calm is a very interesting concept. Too often sport psychologists tell athletes to relax but do not realize that the athlete might get outside of their optimal level of emotional and physical energy. Athletes are told to use relaxation, visualization, deep breathing, etc. but not guided to the level of intensity that is going to lead to their success (which is individual by the way). Azarenka clearly struggled with her anger prior to this year, but completely removing that anger would not necessarily be a good thing as she points out in her match against Barthel at the Aussie Open. The fire that Azarenka has for tennis is a positive, it just needs to be channeled in a productive way. And, it seems Vika has found that optimal level of intensity and using her anger to enhance her performance.
Finally, Azarenka gives great advice to get back to basics when you're losing and have fun on the court. This balanced perspective allows a player, Azarenka in this case, to live with the ups and downs of elite tennis without letting it get to her and affect the motivation to do the work in practice.
This was a great article on a talented young player who is now achieving her potential. Azarenka is a favorite at the French Open. With this mental approach I believe she can win her second Grand Slam.
French Open 2012 Blog Begins May 27
The 2012 French Open is just around the corner. Qualifying begins on May 22. I will be blogging about the French Open starting May 27th.
The blog will focus on key matches and the mental dynamics that occurred in those matches. I will attempt to show how players were able to mentally win or lose matches and then boil that in to lessons for junior players, coaches, and parents.
In the meantime enjoy the Italian Open and get mentally ready for some grinding tennis from Roland Garros.